Empirical Analysis using Household and Micro-level Datasets

Social Budget Tracking and Analysis

A Child Rights Lens for Poverty and Social Impact Analyses (PSIAs)

Austerity Measures Threaten Children and Poor Households: Recent Evidence in Public Expenditures from 128 Developing Countries

In the wake of the food, fuel and financial shocks, a fourth wave of the global economic crisis began to sweep across developing countries in 2010: fiscal austerity. Serving as an update of earlier research by UNICEF, this working paper: (i) examines the latest IMF government spending projections for 128 developing countries, comparing the three periods of 2005-07 (pre-crisis), 2008-09 (crisis phase I: fiscal expansion) and 2010-12 (crisis phase II: fiscal contraction); (ii) discusses the possible risks for social expenditures; (iii) assesses the most common adjustment measures being considered by developing countries in 2010-11 and their potentially adverse impacts on vulnerable populations; and (iv) summarizes a series of alternative policy options that are available to governments to expand fiscal space and ensure a Recovery for All, including children and poor households.

The paper questions if the projected fiscal contraction trajectory—in terms of timing, scope and magnitude—as well as the specific austerity measures considered are conducive to the objective of adequately protecting children and poor households and the achievement of development goals such as the MDGs. The paper encourages policymakers and development partners to evaluate the potential human and development costs of foregone social expenditures and to consider alternative policy measures to ensure a Recovery for All.

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