Analytical Tools
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Empirical Analysis using Household and Micro-level Datasets

Formal empirical analysis of the social impact of crises, policy adjustments and other economic events is typically underpinned by an ex- post analysis using nationally representative household survey data.

Social Budget Tracking and Analysis

Social budget tracking and analysis tools monitor the extent of priority and protection given to public budget items and can influence government policies in favour of allocations to children and families.

A Child Rights Lens for Poverty and Social Impact Analyses (PSIAs)

Poverty and Social Impact Analyses, PSIAs, are aimed at facilitating an ex-ante understanding of the potential distributional impacts of a given policy reform. Child rights centered PSIAs, add a child focus to these impact assessments, as tools specifically designed to promote more child sensitive real-time policy making.

Serbia: Ex-ante Analysis of the Impact of Proposed Taxation Changes on Vulnerable Children and Families

To respond to the effect of the global economic crisis, the government of Serbia put under discussion a variety of fiscal reform measures, including an increase in the Value Added Tax.

In 2010, UNICEF Serbia promoted an ex-ante analysis of the impacts of the announced taxation reform, to highlight the potential effects of that policy reform on the most vulnerable group of the societies, in particular the families with children. The aim of this research initiative is to enable UNICEF to open a debate on the costs and benefits of the proposed reform. Using a tax-benefit micro-simulation applied to the data on the Household Budget Survey, the analysis aims to assess how the poor segments of the population would fare if the proposed changes in taxation policies are put into effect and also the potential effectiveness and costs of compensatory measures to alleviate the adverse impacts.

A synthesis of the project and its preliminary results is reported in the document posted in this section.



  1. Ex-ante Analysis of the Impact of Proposed Taxation Changes on Vulnerable Children and Families in Serbia (2010)
    Research Project Summary

  2. An Analysis of the Effects of the Proposed Tax Changes on Poverty and Vulnerable Groups in Serbia (2010)
    Authors: Matkovic G., and B. Mijatovic