Serbia: Ex-ante Analysis of the Impact of Proposed Taxation Changes on Vulnerable Children and Families
To respond to the effect of the global economic crisis, the government of Serbia put under discussion a variety of fiscal reform measures, including an increase in the Value Added Tax.
In 2010, UNICEF Serbia promoted an ex-ante analysis of the impacts of the announced taxation reform, to highlight the potential effects of that policy reform on the most vulnerable group of the societies, in particular the families with children. The aim of this research initiative is to enable UNICEF to open a debate on the costs and benefits of the proposed reform. Using a tax-benefit micro-simulation applied to the data on the Household Budget Survey, the analysis aims to assess how the poor segments of the population would fare if the proposed changes in taxation policies are put into effect and also the potential effectiveness and costs of compensatory measures to alleviate the adverse impacts.
A synthesis of the project and its preliminary results is reported in the document posted in this section.